What Chase Index measures.
Chase Index compares modeled collecting appeal within a product and configuration. Player context, card type, rarity and estimated frequency contribute to the analysis. The highest-ranked team is normalized to 100; the other teams are shown relative to it.
A score of 100 is not a 100% chance of a hit. Scores are model points, not card prices, cash returns or a promise about your box.
Start with the source.
The checklist describes listed cards and subjects. The odds ledger preserves manufacturer odds by product format. The model connects those records where a mapping is available. A checklist entry alone does not establish the odds of every possible parallel.
The current Topps Chrome reference contains 1,601 checklist entries, 54 families and 349 odds rows across 6 formats.
WAR data © Sports Reference LLC, baseball-reference.com. Derived player inputs from the current research snapshot.
Read the score and the chance separately.
A printing’s card score describes its modeled appeal. Its expected contribution also considers how often it is estimated to appear. A rare card can have a high score while contributing relatively little to an average box.
Team rankings combine allocated card contributions and account for their concentration across card designs. Score share describes a team’s portion of the modeled team scores; it is not that team’s probability of receiving a card.
Hit estimates use available odds and a probability model. Where odds cover a family, the analysis assumes equal subject frequency within the applicable pool. Real packing patterns, short prints and collation may differ. Expected hits are an average count under those assumptions, not a guaranteed number of cards.
The format and your inputs matter.
Choose the exact product format before comparing results. The stored Topps Chrome Hobby configuration uses 20 packs per box and 12 boxes per case. Other box counts you enter are assumptions; the tool asks for missing configuration instead of treating it as established.
Single-box, half-case and full-case views change the number of packs being modeled. Changing the hobby-tier or MVP-buyback settings also changes the analysis. Compare teams using the same settings.
Missing evidence stays visible.
Unmapped odds and unresolved identities are disclosed in the source audit. They do not become invented probabilities. Some historical team names remain unresolved in the current model; printed-team checklist searches and modeled-team coverage can therefore differ.
Multi-team allocations follow the model’s mappings. Included dual-team cards split their contribution equally. Hit, Chase and Grail are overlapping rarity/type categories: a Grail also counts as a Chase and a Hit. Do not add their percentages together.
Read the current source audit →Buyback inputs are a dated snapshot.
The optional MVP-buyback model uses reviewed program and probability inputs. Inspect the capture date, eligibility and assumptions in the Chase Lab before using it. These are not live quotes. Estimated store credit is not cash, and a buyback contribution already included in a total should not be added again.
Photos and recorded pulls answer different questions.
Card photos illustrate specific examples. They do not prove a pull rate. This release does not publish observed-pull statistics. Any future observed results need a defined sample, a matching opening count and clear product-format coverage.
Check the date. Keep the context.
The current input snapshot is dated 2026-09-05; the model is version 0.10.0. Calculations run against these stored inputs when you request them. A new calculation does not mean the underlying evidence was refreshed.
When flagging a possible issue, include the product, format, card or odds row, your settings, and the source that supports the correction.
Contact and corrections →